Political Risks for Global Energy Markets

The years 2022–23 became a period of another dramatic shock for the world economy, especially affecting the global energy sector. Following the 2020–2021 pandemic, which caused lockdowns, massive reduction in travel, and a sharp drop in fossil fuels demand, leading to negative peak oil prices, political events of the last year shook the energy market once again. The rise of gas prices in Europe above the level of $3,000 per 1,000 cubic meters as a result of the sanctions and reduction of Russian gas supplies to the European market, as well as the introduction of a price ceiling for Russian oil supplies, forced all energy market players to reconsider their strategies and quickly change their usual development guidelines. Such shocks not only destroy sustainable development dynamics but also give new impetus to those companies seeking to establish themselves in perspective areas and occupy new market niches with high growth potential. Challenges and opportunities in a turbulent environment raise the successful ones and make it difficult for those who, ignoring political risks, do not see the consequences of the ongoing changes, relying on the usual standards of established approaches. How fast and dynamic will the changes in transport logistics be with a reorientation to the East, how effective can the payments between countries in national currencies become, how will the global financial market change influenced by the move away from the dollar in the oil business?

The Middle East: The Tragedy and Challenges of the Unresolved Conflict

The escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, large-scale armed clashes and numerous civilian casualties have generated a powerful public reaction in the Middle East and beyond. The tragic events have become a serious challenge for the states of the region. While the beginning of the post-globalization era has opened up for them an opportunity to pursue their national interests through a more diversified policy, the consequences of the bloodshed threaten the stability of the fragile states and may slow down the implementation of development strategies in the prosperous ones. Under the current conditions, trends aimed at de-escalation have been pushed back or frozen. It is obvious that priority in the Middle East should be given to security issues and to a search for political settlement of the Palestinian problem.

China-U.S.: Competition, Interdependence, Global Context

The U.S.-China rivalry is becoming protracted, and the consequences of this confrontation are spreading to many spheres of the world economy and politics. As mutual political trust between the two countries wanes, the threat of military conflict increases. Having achieved tremendous growth over several decades, trade between the U.S. and China has begun to decline in 2023. The original premise of the "trade war" was the expectation that China was too dependent on export markets and would therefore be forced to accept American demands. Western policies of "decoupling" and "risk reduction" have been accompanied by an increased use of trade barriers and technological prohibitions.

Special session with participation of Alexey Likhachev, Director General of the State Atomic Energy Corporation "Rosatom"

Russia-Africa: From Program Guidelines to Cooperation Practices

In 2023, the second Russia-Africa summit was held, at which issues of political, economic and humanitarian cooperation between Russia and Africa in the era of the formation of a new world order were discussed. Both Russia and Africa have an understanding that in order to truly liberate themselves from colonial dependence and defend their own sovereignty, as well as to ensure security in the broad sense of the word, it is necessary not only to transfer our cooperation to a new strategic level, but also to move from general declarations to a concrete step-by-step plan for the implementation of all the tasks we have set. The acute military-political conflict had a strong impact on the functioning of the world economy but allowed the accumulation of rich working experience in unfavorable conditions. New crises of various kinds are likely to arise. Balancing the economic interests of countries and peoples is as important for a sustainable world order as lasting peace and indivisible security.

Central Asia, South Caucasus and Russia in Search of New Development Models

In recent years, the confrontation on security issues between Russia and Western countries has moved into a phase of direct military and political confrontation in Ukraine. Opposition to Russia's special military operation has become an idèe fixe of the policy of the United States and a number of Western countries. At the same time, the resulting large-scale crisis turned out to be an important component of the process of transformation of world politics and the formation of a polycentric world order. This process is likely to take quite a long period of time. In the meantime, the world is becoming, as it has been for centuries of human history, more "anarchic" and less predictable. Different countries are adapting to changing circumstances in their own way and are in search of effective development models. Of particular interest is the experience of searching for their own path of development by the countries of South Caucasus and Central Asia, which occupy an important place in modern Eurasia.

The Baltiñs: Dangerous Waters?

For centuries, the Baltics has been a space of economic, cultural, and political interaction between countries and peoples. The shores and waters of the Baltic Sea have been a zone of power confrontation many times. But battles and wars ended, and competition developed simultaneously with cooperation and mutual influence. Today, in an increasingly interdependent world, there are risks of the Greater Baltic Sea Region turning into a region of Europe, where military and political tensions are growing fastest, and interstate and cross-border cooperation is declining amid mutual fears. Meanwhile, everyone in the Baltic Sea region faces common challenges. The normal system of regional trade and communication has been disrupted, social, economic and, cultural ties that have grown over decades are disintegrating, common environmental problems are becoming increasingly acute and can only be solved together.

Rise of the Global South

Not so long ago, discussions about the "rise of the Global South" were nothing more than a tribute to intellectual fashion. But radical changes have taken place in recent years: today, two of the world's five largest economies belong to the Global South, and the phrase itself is increasingly being heard on global platforms. Developing countries are asserting their subjectivity, trying to break the hierarchy that has been developed over the centuries, demanding that former metropolises repent for centuries of colonial oppression and renounce neo-colonialism. How far will this process of subjectivity go? Will the Global South be able to speak with one voice to defend its interests?